A Truly Uncanny Week For Mortgage Rates

Last week ended with rates running into a floor following the Trump’s steel and aluminum tariff announcement. Financial markets viewed that as economically negative. Stocks and rates moved lower as a result. But before the week ended, both had bounced due to uncertainty about how the coming week would play out.

A Truly Uncanny Week For Mortgage Rates Last week ended with rates running into a floor following the Trump’s steel and aluminum tariff announcement. Financial markets viewed that as economically negative. Stocks and rates moved lower as a result. But before the week ended, both had bounced due to uncertainty about how the coming week would play out.

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Yet, by the week ending April 20th, the 10 year Treasury yield was 2.88% – so there was almost no penalty from the Fed increase for long term yields, bond prices or mortgage rates. How did that..

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This week it returned to neutral. Among long leading indicators, purchase mortgage applications, mortgage rates, the Chicago Fed adjusted financial conditions index and Leverage subindex, real estate.

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Here’s proof: Over the last two decades, the Fed Funds Rate and the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate have differed by as much as 5.25%, and by as little as 0.50%. If the Fed Funds Rate were truly linked to U.S. mortgage rates, the difference between the two rates would be linear or logarithmic – not jagged.